If this was to happen, it would probably plunge the country and especially the Mountain region into unprecedented political re-alignments and further political confusion.
It could also deal damaging blows to political careers in the country.
Whereas the demise of political careers and fortunes had been predicated upon the referendum, the Court of Appeal’s ruling on the BBI initiated constitutional amendments would be the game changer.
Apart from deflating expectations and crushing egos, such a ruling would overwhelmingly change public mood in favour of BBI overnight.
People like victories and characteristically, Kenyans would love to be associated with BBI win as handed over by the Court of Appeal.
The celebrations accompanying such a ruling would reverberate throughout the entire country with tsunami pomp and colour.
As expected, the pro- BBI group would take full advantage of such victory to prove a point and hummer the nail on the political ambitions of their opponents.
The pro-BBI group should proactively prepare an elaborate and thorough countrywide celebrations programme in the event the petitions succeed taking into account the Coronavirus factor.
Of course the apologists for and defeated anti-BBI group would downplay the humiliation and vow to teach their opponents a lesson in 2022 elections.
Predictably, such threats would amount to mere hot air because the die would be cast by the first defeat at the Court of Appeal.
In other words, the next humiliation would be served in the referendum, paving way for a near no contest in 2022 elections.
A most important lesson learnt could probably be borrowed from Kenny Rogers famous song, “The Gambler”.
The song illustrates the folly of counting money while the game is ongoing when there is a enough time to do so after the game is over.
From where I sit and reasoning things out, that is exactly what those opposed to the BBI have been doing.
In this regard, they would have themselves to blame for celebrating prematurely and emboldening their supporters to a non-existence victory.
It would be comical and shameful for leaders who are currently “defecting” to United Democratic Alliance (UDA) Party in anticipation of the Court of Appeal’s dismissal of BBI petitions.
Why the anti-BBI group, especially within Mt Kenya is exuding confidence and certainty that the Appelate court will uphold the lower court ruling is a mystery to many pundits.
Nonetheless, the reality is drawing near and the chicken as they say are coming home to roost.
Obviously, when this happens and I have a hunch it might, pro-BBI group will be whistling softly all the way to victory in 2022 leaving in its wake, a waft of pungent political smell in the noses of big and not so big political personalities.
Luckily for the vanquished, the amendments the pro-BBI group is advancing can accommodate the demands, expectations and aspirations of all political players.
Furthermore, pro-BBI group has another chance at the Supreme Court in the event its petitions fail at the Court of Appeal.
The anti-BBI group has similar recourse if defeated at the court but unless the motive is to further delay the constitutional amendments and complicate the process, this in my opinion would be futile.
Even then, the content of this article will still apply when or/and if it gets to that level.
Kaunda wa Muchunku
Do you have any commentary you would want us to publish? Share with us via email@example.com